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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for US fell slightly in July

Friday, August 22, 2025 — 17:31:46 (UTC)

NEW YORK, Aug. 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.3% in June. The LEI fell by 2.7% over the six months between January and July 2025, a faster rate of decline than its –1.0% contraction over the previous six-month period (July 2024 to January 2025).

"The leading economic index for the US decreased just slightly in July," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index. Meanwhile, stock prices remained a key positive support of the LEI. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much lower in July than in June and were the second most positive component of the LEI, after contributing negatively to the index over the previous three months. While the LEI's six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved slighlty in July—but not enough to avoid triggering the recession signal again. Despite that, The Conference Board does not currently project a recession, though we do expect the economy to weaken in H2 2025, as the negative impacts from tariffs become more visible. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, before slowing in 2026 to 1.3%."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US rose by 0.2% in July 2025 to 114.9 (2016=100), no change in June (a downward revision from an initially reported increase of 0.3%). The CEI rose by 0.9% between January and July 2025, up from 0.6% over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index except industrial production improved in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US remained unchanged at 119.9 (2016=100) in both June and July 2025. The LAG grew by 0.9% in the six months between January and July 2025—more than reversing its –0.1% decline over the previous six months.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 18, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

2025

6-Month

May June July Jan to Jul Leading Index 99.1

98.8

98.7 p

Percent Change 0.0

-0.3

-0.1

-2.7

Diffusion 50.0

45.0

65.0

40.0

Coincident Index 114.7 r 114.7 r 114.9 p

Percent Change -0.1 r 0.0 r 0.2

0.9

Diffusion 37.5

62.5

62.5

100.0

Lagging Index 119.9

119.9

119.9 p

Percent Change 0.4

0.0

0.0

0.9

Diffusion 64.3

35.7

42.9

28.6

p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected Source: The Conference Board Indexes equal 100 in 2016

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

Average weekly hours in manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials

ISM® Index of New Orders

Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits for new private housing units

S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices

Leading Credit Index™

Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

Payroll employment

Personal income less transfer payments

Manufacturing and trade sales

Industrial production

To access data, please visit: data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

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Source: Company press release.

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