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Velera publishes October edition of the Velera Payments Index

Thursday, October 15, 2026 — 19:04:13 (UTC)

Tampa, Fla., Oct. 15, 2026—Today, Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the October edition of the Velera Payments Index, which highlights the growing role of digital wallets in everyday payments, continued strength in card-not-present spending and consumers’ increasing focus on essential purchases amid persistent inflationary pressures.

September’s economic indicators highlighted a growing divergence between consumer sentiment and behavior. Despite weakening confidence, rising inflation and ongoing affordability concerns, consumers remained economically engaged, supported by strong spending activity and generally stable labor market conditions. In this October 2026 edition of the Velera Payments Index, we also present our quarterly metrics update, including credit card balances, delinquencies and digital wallet activity.

Labor market data was mixed in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported nonfarm payroll growth of 29,000, well below expectations of 84,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, but remained within the narrow 4.1% to 4.3% range observed since March. Wage growth also moderated, with average hourly earnings rising 3% year over year, the slowest annual pace since May 2021. In contrast, the September ADP jobs report showed renewed momentum in private-sector hiring following three months of slower growth. Job growth from private employers defied expectations, with 90,000 additional jobs, up from August’s revised 36,000, while base pay increased 3.2% year over year. Similarly, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated improving labor market confidence, with consumers reporting less concern about job loss and greater optimism about their employment prospects, even as concerns about household finances persisted.

Despite broadly stable labor market conditions, consumer confidence declined across key measures in September, as concerns about elevated prices and the economic outlook persisted. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 48.1 from 51.7 in August, reaching its lowest level in four months. Assessments of both current and expected personal finances weakened, although buying conditions for durable goods improved modestly, as some consumers sought to avoid potentially higher future prices. Similarly, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, missing economists’ expectations and reaching its lowest level in more than a decade. Together, the declines point to a more cautious consumer backdrop heading into the final quarter of 2026, even as spending activity remains resilient.

September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, with headline CPI increasing 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% year over year, indicating that while underlying inflation remains below headline levels, price pressures have yet to fully moderate. Although energy costs were a primary driver of the increase, the firmer-than-expected core reading suggests inflationary pressures are extending beyond traditionally volatile categories.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will convene on October 27-28. Following the weaker-than-expected BLS jobs report, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause its tightening cycle and hold the federal funds rate steady at its current target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. September’s inflation data likely strengthens the case for one additional rate hike before year-end, with market expectations increasingly focused on the December 8-9 meeting.

Key takeaways for September include:

· Consumers continued to spend, despite financial pressure. Card spending delivered strong growth in September, with debit purchases surging 9.5% year over year and credit purchases rising 6%. The Goods sector was a leading contributor to purchase growth for both payment types, while Gasoline remained a key driver amid elevated fuel prices.

· Essential spending remained the primary driver of card growth. Non-discretionary purchases outpaced discretionary spending for both credit and debit, with debit non-discretionary purchases rising 9.6% year over year versus 8.6% for discretionary. The gap was more pronounced for credit, with non-discretionary purchases up 6.7% compared with 2.8% for discretionary.

· The labor market showed signs of moderation without a significant deterioration in employment conditions. Wage growth trailed inflation, and unemployment edged up to 4.2%, signaling easing labor market pressures. However, September’s stronger-than-expected inflation data underscore that price pressures remain persistent, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its late-October meeting, while supporting expectations for another rate increase later this year.

“The disconnect between consumer sentiment and spending continues to widen,” said Norm Patrick, Vice President of Payments & Deposits Consulting, Advisors Plus. “We continue to see a shift in how and where consumers spend, with everyday essentials accounting for a larger share of growth, while digital payment methods are becoming even more ingrained in daily life. As consumers look for value and convenience, credit unions have an opportunity to strengthen relationships by making sure their cards remain the preferred choice wherever members choose to pay.”

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Source: Company press release.

Categories: Reports and research