Holiday shoppers to spend over $250 billion online

Americans are expected to set new records for online gift purchases this holiday season, according data compiled and analyzed by Adobe Analytics. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2025, consumer online spending will hit $253.4 billion, representing 5.3 percent growth over the same period last year.

A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion per day, up from seven days last year. Cyber week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2 percent of overall online spending this holiday season, to total $43.7 billion, which represents 6.3 percent year-over-year growth.

Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season—and the year—with Americans spending $14.2 billion, a 6.3 percent increase over 2024. However, Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3 percent year-over-year to $11.7 billion.

On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online, up 4.9 percent over 2024. Mobile devices will be the dominant shopping platform. Adobe predicts they will drive a record 56.1 percent share of online spending (versus desktop shopping). This represents $142.7 billion in sales, an 8.5 percent year-over-year increase.

BNPL to drive additional $2 billion

Consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) plays to that desire. BNPL is expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending. This is roughly $2 billion more than during the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spending, Adobe said.

BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone, crossing $1 billion to total $1.04 billion, which is a 5 percent increase over 2024. BNPL usage on Black Friday is expected to be strong as well, with 11 percent year-over-year growth to total $761.8 million. Adobe said the vast majority of BNPL spend during the holiday shopping season likely will come through mobile devices, at 79 percent share of spending to total $15.6 billion.

Competitive discounts will be the norm

Adobe said it anticipates significant discounts this holiday season. Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 28 percent off listed prices, while discounts for toys are set to hit 27 percent. Competitive discounts are also expected in apparel, televisions, computers, sporting goods, appliances and furniture sales.

The deepest discounts are expected to land throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being "last call" for the best deals, Adobe said. "Consumers are not simply looking for the lowest prices this season," Adobe wrote. Competitive discounts will drive shoppers to "trade up" to higher-ticket items in certain categories – "allowing individuals to get more value out of their dollar."

The share-of-units-sold for the most expensive goods is set to rise by 56 percent in sporting goods, 52 percent in electronics, 39 percent in appliances, 32 percent in personal care and 26 percent in tools and home improvement.

Three categories to drive online growth

Electronics, apparel and home goods all are set to drive growth in online sales, accounting for more than half of all ecommerce purchases. Smaller categories (in terms of spending) that are expected to experience higher growth this year include groceries (up 9.2 percent over last year to total $23.5 billion) and cosmetics (9.1 percent over last year to total $8.4 billion).

Adobe expects an uptick in purchases for the home this season, as consumers take advantage of deals to upgrade their living spaces. Online sales of power tools are expected to rise a whopping 1,060 percent (compared to spending levels for the first eight months of the year). Similarly big spending increases are expected for home security products (1,050 percent), televisions (915 percent), refrigerators/freezers (910 percent), and smart home devices (615 percent).

Generative AI and social media influences

Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers shop online, becoming helpful assistants for compiling research before making purchases. Adobe said it observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on links) during the 2024 holiday season, with traffic increasing 1,300 percent year-over-year.

This year, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520 percent over 2024, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.

Categories of purchases where AI is expected to be used the most include toys, electronics, jewelry and personal care.

Advertising across social media platforms is expected to be a substantial growth driver this holiday season. Its share of online revenue (purchases attributed to social traffic) is expected to rise by 51 percent year-over-year. That represents a significant increase over the 2024 season where growth was a mere 5 percent over 2023.

While major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and online sales, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products, Adobe said.

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