Payments revenue growing, fostering new opportunities

Global payments revenue is projected to grow to $2.4 trillion by 2029, from $1.9 trillion in 2024. This according to new research by the Boston Consulting Group.

Growth is expected to moderate to about 4 percent annually over the next five years. But the industry is undergoing a foundational reset, which eventually will lead to even more growth. BCG, in press release, called it a “foundational reset.” That’s what will happen as agentic AI, digital currencies and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion, the consultancy explained.

These findings are contained in BCG’s 23rd annual global payments report, The future is (anything but) stable. The report draws on BCG’s proprietary global payments model and includes forecasts and insights into market dynamics across more than 60 economies accounting for 90 percent of global GDP. The report identifies five structural forces reshaping the payments landscape. They are:

• The rise of agentic AI, • Digital currencies, such as stablecoins, • Fintech disruption, • Real-time account-to-account payment systems, and • The enduring importance of cost transformation.

“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade,” he added.

Forces reshaping the industry

After growing at a pace of 8.8 percent annually since 2019, overall payments revenue expansion will ease to just 4 percent annually, the report noted. But the outlook for transaction-based revenue is good – it will “remain strong”, BCG projected – while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related combined) Latin America will lead the pack, with 7.9 percent annual growth through 2029. Revenue growth in North America is projected to be 3.4 percent. Agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion e-commerce spending. BCG’s research found 81 percent of U.S. consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the “near future,” BCG wrote.

Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume last year, although “real-world payments” accounted for just 1 percent of that total. The stablecoin market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading, BCG explained.

Payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenues last year, and revenues for these firms are growing at a 23 percent annual clip. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45 percent of total fintech revenue. Top performers are growing three times as fast as incumbents, BCG found.

Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40 percent globally in 2024, according to BCG’s research. These systems now account for about a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50 percent of transactions in markets like Brazil and India. Brazil’s Pix A2A network is owned and operated by that nation’s central bank. India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is operated by a semi-governmental, non-profit entity. The governments of both nations strongly encourage usage of their respective A2A networks.

“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.” -end-

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