Surveys of more than 50,000 consumers in 50 countries that collectively account for more than 80 percent of the world's mobile subscribers indicate mobile payment transactions will amount to $945 billion by 2015 - a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 98 percent.
The IE Market Research Third Quarter 2011 Global & Regional Mobile Payments Market Forecast was released in September 2011 and was supplemented in November 2011 with closer looks at regional markets. The regional reports include data on mobile payments in New Zealand, Canada, Taiwan, Denmark, Austria, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe, among others.
IEMR Vice President of Research Nizar Assani said the report also includes information on large, emerging markets such as India and China. He noted the importance of mobile payments is confirmed by the commitment of the major card companies to mobile payment technology.
"A lot of merchants are using mobile payments," Assani said. "With NFC [near field communication] particularly we are seeing the time to transaction declining. This is something consumers and merchants want to happen as much as possible.
"We are forecasting on a global level the total volume of transactions going to $945 billion by 2015. This means the market is growing by nearly 100 percent a year."
Here are some conclusions drawn from the forecast:
Meanwhile, NFC captured only 17.6 percent of mobile payment transactions in 2010, but NFC transactions are expected to take off and more than double by 2015.
The forecast said, "The decline in the share of SMS transactions is not so much about the technology as it is about adoption of NFC technology in developed markets. ... NFC offers the potential 'sweet spot' of access to millions of retail POS terminals, something that SMS cannot match as a transaction technology."
"In our view, the key impediment to merchandise purchases ... is that it requires an extensive merchant network with pre-registration of the user's bank accounts or credit cards with the 'made for mobile' service," the forecast authors said.
"We think that prepaid top-ups will be extremely popular in developing markets because they allow for small-denominated and frequent transactions that fit the needs of cash-starved societies," the forecast stated.
Survey statistics indicate consumers are not ready to use mobile devices for money transfers on a large scale. The report predicts most mobile money transactions will not be mobile-to-mobile but, rather, mobile-to-cash, requiring the physical delivery of the cash.
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