NRF reports modest sales gains for 2018 holiday season

Retail sales during the year-end 2018 holiday season grew at a lower than expected 2.9 percent over the same period in 2017 to total $707.5 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. That fell short of the 4.3 percent to 4.8 percent gains the NRF predicted at the start of the year-end holiday season.

"Today's numbers are truly a surprise and in contradiction to the consumer spending trends we were seeing, especially after such strong October and November spending," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. "The combination of financial market volatility, the government shutdown and trade tensions created a trifecta of anxiety and uncertainty impacting spending," Kleinhenz added.

Klenhenz cautioned, however, that the NRF's analysis, which is based on data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, may be subject to change once the government revises 2018 data in the coming months.

Generally, the Commerce Department publishes preliminary year-end spending data within two weeks of the New Year, but this year it got delayed because of the partial federal government shutdown.

If data published by Mastercard late last year is an indication, the NRF may wind up adjusting its retail sales figures upward. According to the Mastercard SpendingPulse – which provides insights into overall retail spending trends across all payment types, including cash and checks – 2018 holiday spending rose 5.1 percent over 2017 to total $850 billion, making it the best holiday season for retailers in six years, Mastercard said.

Online sales surge, sporting goods sales plummet

Both NRF and Mastercard reported the largest gains in retail sales were recorded through the online channel. MasterCard said online sales were up 19.1 percent over the 2017 year-end holiday shopping season. NRF said online and other non-store sales were up 11.5 percent and totaled $146.8 billion.

Here's a rundown of year-over-year sales changes in other key retailing sectors, based on the NRF's report:

• Clothing and accessories store sales were up 4.2 percent and totaled $61.7 billion
• Sales at health and personal care stores were up 2.6 percent and totaled $60.8 billion
• General merchandize stores saw sales rise 2.3 percent to total $146.8 billion
• Grocery and beverage store sales grew by 1.9 percent to total $130.5 billion
• Building materials and garden supply stores saw sales increase 1.6 percent to total $61.5 billion
• Sales at electronics and appliance stores were up 0.2 percent and totaled $22.3 billion
• Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were unchanged at $22.6 billon
• Sporting goods stores saw sales drop by 13.5 percent to total $16 billion

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