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Consumer Confidence Declining?

Despite recent reports of increasing job opportunities and improved economic growth, U.S. consumers feel less comfortable spending their money.

According to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), consumer confidence has slowly declined for four consecutive months, ending in April 2005. It has reached its lowest level since September 2003.

"The recent loss in consumer confidence was due to heightened concerns about rising inflation, higher interest rates and slower job growth," said Richard Curtin, the Director of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers.

The ICS fell from 92.6 in March to 87.7 in April. The university's Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) decreased from 82.8 in March to 77.0 in April.

Swiftly rising energy costs likely had the most wide-ranging negative impact across all economic levels.

"One in five consumers specifically cited the negative impact of rising [gas] prices when asked about their current financial situation, the highest level recorded since 1991," Curtin said.

People expect the largest drop in their individual economic outlook in the past 10 years. This is "reflected in their expectation that [gas] prices would rise faster than their incomes during the year ahead," Curtin said.

"These are not drastic declines. The index is still above its 50-year average of 86.0 and, at present, consumers do not expect any [drastic] downturn over the next year and into the future."

The Michigan index calculations are based on opinions gathered from a nationally representative survey of households in which respondents report on the current and future status of personal finances, employment, interest rates, inflation and buying conditions.

New York City-based The Conference Board, another organization that reports on consumer trends, showed similar negative patterns.

Lowered expectations of economic activity, including anticipated decreases in job openings and a plateau in salary growth contributed to a Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decline of 5.3 points between March and April, from 103.0 to 97.7.

Ken Goldstein, an economist with The Conference Board, stressed that the decline in confidence is minimal, and is not reason to worry about economic stagnation in the near future.

"Consumer confidence has changed less in three months than the stock market has in the past couple of weeks," Goldstein said.

"Consumer confidence is tied directly to the performance of the labor market. There was as much hiring in April as February. Something else will have to happen [for a serious decrease in consumer activity]."

The Conference Board's Present Situation Index sank to 113.6 from 117.0 over the same two-month period. Its Expectations Index dropped from 93.7 to 87.2.

Exemplifying lowered confidence in the job market's near future, its Help-Wanted Advertising Index fell two points between March and April.

"Despite the decline, the Present Situations Index remains at levels indicative of a healthy economy," said Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

"However, the Expectations Index is now at its lowest level since July 2003 ... Consumers do not anticipate an improvement in economic growth nor in their incomes. And they expect an even tighter job market over the summer months."

The United States is not the only country with disappointing consumer activity. Bloomberg's Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also showed a decline in retail activity for four straight months.

The PMI measures retail activity in France, Italy and Germany. April's PMI was at 48.7, below the break-even point for the eighth time in the past nine months.

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